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IRAN OIL & GAS REPORT

Exploration in Iran will remain limited given the extensive amount of proven unproduced resource. The main focus will be on improving the understanding of existing fields.

  • Total has signed a heads of agreement for the development of South Pars phase 11.
  • DNO has signed an MoU to study the Changuleh oil field.
  • NIOC has secured an MoU with PTTEP for preliminary studies on the Changuleh, Balal and Dalpari oil fields.

Description

Exploration in Iran will remain limited given the extensive amount of proven unproduced resource. The main focus will be on improving the understanding of existing fields.

  • Total has signed a heads of agreement for the development of South Pars phase 11.
  • DNO has signed an MoU to study the Changuleh oil field.
  • NIOC has secured an MoU with PTTEP for preliminary studies on the Changuleh, Balal and Dalpari oil fields.
  • Malaysia’s Petronas will undertake studies on the South Azadegan and Cheshmeh oil fields.
  • Gazprom Neft is due to conduct a development study on the Changuleh and Cheshmeh-Khosh oil fields.
  • Schlumberger has signed an MoU for studies on the Shadegan, Parsi and Rag-e-Sefid oil fields.
  • Shell agreed a memorandum to assess the Azadegan, Yadavaran and Kish fields.
  • NIOC is due to resume exploration activities at the Moghan oil field.

Additional information

File Type

PDF

File Size

705 KB

Pages

82

Published by

BMI Research

Table of contents

BMI Industry View…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 7

Table: Headline Forecasts (Iran 2015-2021)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7

SWOT……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9

OIl & Gas SWOT……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 9

Industry Forecast……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11

Upstream Exploration…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 11

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 12

Upstream Projects…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14

Table: New Projects Expected To Be Offered Post-Sanctions……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14

Upstream Production – Oil……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 14

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 15

Table: New Oil Projects On Offer………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 18

Table: Oil Production (Iran 2015-2020)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19

Table: Oil Production (Iran 2021-2026)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 19

Upstream Production – Gas…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 20

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 20

Table: South Pars Project Phases……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22

Table: Gas Projects Proposed Under The IPC……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 22

Table: Gas Production (Iran 2015-2020)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 23

Table: Gas Production (Iran 2021-2026)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 24

Refining………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 25

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 25

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 25

Table: Major Iranian Refineries………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 26

Table: Modernisation Projects……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 29

Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Iran 2015-2020)…………………………………………………………………………… 29

Table: Refining Capacity And Refined Products Production (Iran 2021-2026)…………………………………………………………………………… 29

Refined Fuels Consumption……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 30

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 30

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 30

Table: Approximate Gasoline & Diesel Costs………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 32

Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iran 2015-2020)………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33

Table: Refined Products Consumption (Iran 2021-2026)………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 33

Gas Consumption……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 33

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 33

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 34

Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2015-2020)………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35

Table: Gas Consumption (Iran 2021-2026)………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 35

 

Crude Oil Trade Forecast……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 36

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 36

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 36

Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2015-2021)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 38

Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Iran 2021-2026)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 39

Refined Products Trade Forecast…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 39

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 39

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 39

Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2015-2020)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42

Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Iran 2021-2026)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42

Trade – Gas (Pipeline And LNG)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42

Latest Updates………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 42

Structural Trends………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 42

Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2015-2020)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 45

Table: Gas Net Exports (Iran 2021-2026)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 46

Industry Risk/Reward Index……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 47

Middle East – Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 47

Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 47

Upstream: Index Resilient In Lower Price Environment………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 48

Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 48

Downstream: Limited Opportunities…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 50

Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index………………………………………………………………………………………………… 50

Iran – Risk/Reward Index………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 52

Upstream Index……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 52

Downstream Index…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 53

Market Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 54

Iran Energy Market Overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 54

Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 54

Table: Key Upstream Operators – Iran Oil & Gas Sector…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 54

Table: Key Downstream Operators – Iran Energy Sector…………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 54

Fiscal Regime………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 55

Oil And Gas Infrastructure……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56

Oil Refineries………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 56

Table: Refineries In Iran……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 56

Service Stations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 57

Oil Storage Facilities……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 57

Oil Terminals/Ports……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 58

Oil Pipelines………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 58

Gas Pipelines………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 59

Table: Major Proposed Pipelines………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 59

Gas Storage Facilities…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 60

Table: Operation, Under Construction & Planned Gas Storage……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 60

Competitive Landscape…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 61

Company Profile…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 62

NIOC……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 62

Table: Major NIOC Subsidiaries…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 63

Table: Fields Proposed Under The New IPC…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 64

Regional Overview………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 66

Middle East Oil & Gas Regional Overview……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 66

Oil Production: Output Cut To Have Marginal Impact………………………………………………………………………………………………… 66

Table: Marginal Impact On 2017 Output From Cut (mn b/d)…………………………………………………………………………………………………… 67

Oil Consumption: Subsidy Reform Tempering Demand……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 69

Table: Average Gasoline Pump Price June 2015 & December 2016 (USD/Litre)………………………………………………………………………… 69

Refining Capacity: Mega Refineries To Support Economic Diversification……………………………………………………………….. 70

Gas Production: Gas Projects Move Forward……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71

Gas Consumption: Industrial Growth And Power Strengthen Consumption……………………………………………………………….. 73

Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Production, Refining Capacity & Trade……………………………………………………………………………………… 74

Glossary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 75

Table: Glossary Of Terms…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 75

Methodology…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 77

Industry Forecast Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 77

Source……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 79

Risk/Reward Index Methodology………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 79

Table: Bmi’s Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 81

Table: Weighting     82

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